An Update on Labor, Tariffs, and the Uncertainty Around Church Construction in 2027

As the principal and founder of Ministry Solutions Group, I see a lot of the trends across the world of church construction, renovation, and building activation. Last year, I summarized my thoughts on how tariffs and labor were impacting church construction costs and timelines. Earlier in the year, I also wrote an update on why costs continue to rise with church expansion and building transformation initiatives.

I got so much positive feedback from these pieces — and requests for more insights — that I thought I’d share a few quick updates around labor and tariffs as we’re getting ready to transition from 2026 to 2027. 

Let me start with what I always say. I’m never trying to be politically polarizing with these articles. I’m simply trying to give the senior pastors and church leaders that my team works with industry-level insights to help inform their construction decisions in the months ahead. This isn’t commentary on my political leanings or a call for change. It’s simply observations — and let me start by observing this: I’ve never seen more uncertainty in any market than we have right now.

Prices are so unbelievably uncertain that it is almost impossible to tell how much something is going to cost. That’s okay if you’re buying a candy bar at the grocery store. But when you’re trying to match a $30M budget, and you’re off by $5M just because you can’t predict costs six months from now? That’s a challenge. It can quickly become a problem, too. 

One of the most difficult and dynamic things influencing the construction sector right now (including church construction) is a bit of bad synergy between tariffs and labor fluctuations. Let’s take a look at both through a church construction lens.

The Challenge of Labor in 2027

ICE has stepped up its activities in 2026, and again, I don’t care where your political ideology falls here. One factual result of the change is that we have a direct issue with labor shortages — especially in construction. 

In August, the AGC (Construction Association) had already reported that 92% of construction firms are struggling to find workers. 45% have gone further, claiming the labor shortage is directly impacting project delays. I saw a breakdown of the percentage of immigrant workers in various areas of the construction trades. Drywall, masons, roofers, painters, flooring — they’re all over 50%. 

Last year, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics projected that there are going to be almost 600,000 job openings each year in the construction industry. This was an estimate based on employment growth, replacing workers, and because “overall employment in construction and extraction occupations is projected to grow faster than the average for all occupations from 2025 to 2035.” 

Note that there is nothing in there about losing more labor due to the current labor force being absent. Not retired. Not a career pivot. Just gone. And I get it. Put yourself in somebody’s shoes: Why would you show up to a job site if you think there’s a risk? 

But again, the facts here speak for themselves. Construction firms are struggling to keep skilled workers on sites — and that is trickling down into budgets and timelines.

The craziest part is that this is just exacerbating a job shortage issue that has already been going on for the past half-decade and more. The COVID-19 pandemic was a disaster for our domestic labor force in the trades. Many people dropped out during that time and never came back to the construction industry.

A lot of church construction takes years, so you’re projecting way into the future. Put it all together, and you get contractors who are trying to price local jobs without knowing if they’ll have the teams to complete them when the time comes to execute the plan. 

We’re completely reliant on a foreign-born workforce in this area of the economy, in particular, a workforce that is melting away. And that’s just the labor part of the equation. Now let’s look at tariffs…

Uncertainty Around Tariffs Continues

We hear about tariffs all the time in the news. But it’s harder to see their impact than with labor. If you have a skilled laborer and then you don’t, you’ll notice the difference. 

With tariffs, though, the impact gets more nuanced — especially since things keep changing overnight, and then change again and again. Something can be said on a prominent social media account, you can go to bed, and when you wake up the next day, hey, presto! The price of PVC went up 30%. 

Maybe Canada gets a 50% tariff and, then, what do you know? They control our timber supply. You have no idea what steel is going to cost tomorrow. You have no idea what imports are going to cost. This is really hard stuff to predict without tariffs factoring into the equation. With them, it’s impossible.

What Does All of This Mean for Churches?

Okay, let’s bring it back in. Again, no political soapboxes here. Just cold, hard facts about tariffs, labor shortages, and church construction projects. 

Between the tariffs and deportation, the plain, hard truth is that nobody knows what anything is going to cost. Not next week. Not next month. Especially not a year from now.

What that means is that we have general contractors right now who are actually refusing to do what’s called a guaranteed maximum price. They won’t lock in a contract until they can buy the materials.

That’s not how it’s been. Typically, when a subcontractor gives you a price on labor and materials, they’re guaranteeing that price for six to 12 months.

If you get an estimate, you can assume they’re pricing things literally based on what they know today without knowing what it’s going to cost tomorrow. You think you’re at $10M, but your GC won’t lock in a contract until they can buy the materials. By then, it could be $9M. If it swings, though, it’ll likely head toward $11M, $12M, or even higher.

The Owner’s Rep Advantage in Uncertain Church Construction Markets

Here’s where having an Owner’s Rep, like a member of our team at Ministry Solutions Group, becomes a differentiating factor. With so much uncertainty, the last thing you want is a general contractor coming in, working with an architect to design a huge project, and then locking you into something that’s already too big for your budget …and could go up even further by the time they actually go to buy materials.

We’ve helped over 300 churches across America with their construction projects now. In that time, we’ve found that by far the best way to approach a proposed renovation, addition, or new build is to start with your budget. Then work toward design. 

That’s sound wisdom and good stewardship at the best of times. When everything is this uncertain, it’s just straight sense. 

Here’s the thing. What is your budget in the first place? In reality, a budget is just a number you make up based on what you know about your finances to give yourself guardrails. How do you set an accurate budget for your project? How do you leave enough space for uncertainty?

That’s where working with an owner’s rep that knows what they’re doing becomes an advantage. You might not know what’s going on in the construction world. That one guy on your elder’s team or your church board might know a few things, but chances are, their information isn’t current or backed by experience. An owner’s rep gives you cutting-edge information and experiential advice that can help you set your project up for speed and success from day one — no matter what uncertainties you end up facing along the way.

If you’re getting ready for a project, reach out to our team for more information. We’ll set you up with a Free Analysis to get some initial information and get you moving in the right direction.