What Is a Church Growth Gap? (And What Does Your Church Transition Process Look Like?)

Measuring church growth is never easy. Progress and church transitions look different in each ministry. Factors like evangelism, discipleship, and current church size all factor into the equation. This makes church transitions variable from one situation to the next.

If you’re looking for a consistent way to measure your church’s trajectory, plan for the future, and make confident choices moving forward, you want to use what I call the Growth Gap.

Start by Recognizing the Right Growth Metrics

How do you measure your church growth? Do you consider differences in attendance each month? Do you look at your growth as a percentage?

These are common metrics. They’ll also lie to you.

Consider tithing as a perfect example. Week-to-week offerings can fluctuate dramatically based on things like pay cycles and months with five Sundays. Comparing one week to the next doesn’t help when there is that much change on a regular basis.

The same goes for growth. In fact, you don’t even want to measure growth on a monthly or quarterly basis. Seasonal factors can have too big of an impact. 

For instance, the summer often leads to a massive drop in attendance. In a place like Texas, this might be because people are vacationing or looking for warm-weather activities. In a northern climate like New York, holiday plans and the months-long absence of snowbirds are a factor.

This means comparing attendance from May to July could look dramatically different — and yet, it won’t actually give you helpful information, since most of the missing people in July will be back when school starts up again and the temperature dips in September.

How to Count a Growth Gap

Rather than counting week to week or month to month, assess your church growth year over year. If you had 1,100 people in June and 1,000 attending last June, you grew by 100 people.

I say 100 people and not 10% because percentages are also deceptive church growth statistics. If you have a congregation of 10 and you grow to 20 in a year, you may have experienced 100% growth, but that doesn’t mean much in your day-to-day activities yet.

For something to become an official “growth gap,” I typically say you need at least three years in a row of the same pattern. 

Annual comparisons, numerical counting, and long-term consistency give you the ability to make detailed forecasts. This makes it easier to reasonably predict when you’ll need to adjust things like parking lot space, baptisms, or the need for a second service.

Understanding What Your Church’s Growth Gap Looks Like

Okay, now it’s time to get practical. What does your church growth gap look like?

Look for the data that matters. For instance, are you a well-established church? If so, year-over-year attendance numbers can indicate growth. Evaluating how many things you’re running today (and how many volunteers are running them) is another good metric for many churches.

If you’re a church plant, you may want to focus less on attendance or staff and more on things like processes. These are easier to assess when you don’t have that three-year track record yet. 

Are you achieving rhythms and systems that align with your organizational mission and vision? How much closer are you to achieving these things than you were when you started?

Look at the unique leading indicators that your church considers “growth” rather than lagging indicators that come as a response to a situation, like too many kids in junior church last Sunday or a lack of parking every week since March. Once you’ve identified the proactive indicators that matter, create benchmarks and metrics to measure them at appropriate intervals.

Using the Growth Gap to Manage Transitions

Every successful church goes through transitions. Paying attention to the rhythms and patterns that occur during seasons of planting and growth makes it easier to plan for the future. 

Make sure you understand your church’s Growth Gap. If you need help planning for what is to come, our team at Ministry Solutions Group would love to work alongside you to help you prepare for a future filled with hope, blessings, and growth.